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Leaning on Buffett's Gold.

The following trade frame is an example for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer at the bottom.


Last August in its 13F for the period ended Jun 30th, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reported acquiring a new position in Barrick Gold Corp (Symbol: GOLD) : 21M shares, worth 567$ M. It was the first time that Buffett invested in anything that was related to gold. The estimated average price paid was 26.94 .

In the following day after that report, GOLD was up 11.5% (from 27 to 30.1).


However, the last 13F released few days ago, shows that Buffett sold 42% of its GOLD holdings, before Sep 30th.

(Another interesting point in that report, which is irrelevant for this post, is that Buffett is buying a secret stock that could be revealed within weeks. "Confidential information has been omitted from the form 13F". Some traders even betting that his new holding is TSLA :) ).


The last weakness in the Gold metal and Gold Miners, took GOLD (Barrick) to its support level from Jun.



If you are bullish on GLD because of all the money printing world wide, and the expected inflation, then there is an opportunity to use options on GOLD to leverage the upside potential.


For example, Jan21 Call27 cost 0.33$.

This means that your BE is 27.33 for 53 days. (I'm ignoring a small 0.09$ dividend here).

You can say it looks far away, 17.5% up just to break even. But it's been there just 10 days ago.

If GOLD will go back to its last resistance around 30, then you are looking at 9:1 R:R.


I like buying options where I know that strong hands of value players already liked the trade in that price. It's true that Buffett reduced the position (maybe around 30), but still it gives me some kind of trade frame for where my target should be.


The beauty of using options, is that I won't be stopped out if the market will continue to go down, and then go up again. I'm only risking the initial premium. This allows me to take a counter trade against the strong downside move.


Disclaimer

We are not an investment advisory services, nor are we registered investment advisors or broker-dealers and do not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Customers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in this example will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these sites are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. We, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.

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